Result of Service

The consultant is expected to provide the following deliverables i. Prepare a “Size of the middle class: trends and updates" chapter (approximately 20 pages). [30 September 2026] ii. Prepare a “Living conditions of the middle class” chapter, including a section on "Trends in inequality perceptions.” (approximately 20 pages). [15 December 2026] All deliverables produced will become property of ESCWA.

Work Location

Remote

Expected duration

5 Months

Duties and Responsibilities

Background The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development as well as the Post-2030 Agenda recognizes that fighting poverty according to all its forms is among the greatest global challenges and is indispensable for sustainable development. Meanwhile, across the developing world, poverty reduction has been slow and inconsistent. The case in point is the Arab region, where poverty has been rising over the past two decades due to various adverse shocks – notably the pandemic, recurring conflict, man-made and natural disasters, and global inflation. With the weight of this evidence, there is considerable concern regarding the capacity of Arab developing countries to recover and transition out of poverty in the coming years. To support its member States with designing policies for alleviating economic poverty according to various definitions, UN ESCWA has advanced novel approaches for measuring and projecting poverty and vulnerability consistently across countries and years. ESCWA’s recent publications on money metric poverty, inequality, and the middle class in Arab countries show poverty has been on the rise, particularly in low-income Arab countries. They also found that a substantial share of the middle class in middle income countries – defined through a social lens – was either consumption-poor or vulnerable to falling into poverty. These findings reveal the lived realities of socioeconomic insecurity and downward mobility in the region. Recent conflicts such as the ongoing War on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have further exacerbated deprivation and vulnerability by causing destruction and displacement, income shocks, and surging costs of fuels and other basic commodities. The War on Iran has also illustrated that no Arab subregion or country income group is immune to the impacts of conflict. Economic inequality does not drive the long-term poverty trends. In fact, income inequality has been stagnating or falling in much of the region, and wealth inequality has also been stagnating or even falling in Arab middle-income and high-income countries, even though it has risen in Arab least developed countries (LDCs). Trends in social inequalities corroborate the improved inclusiveness of the environment and socioeconomic opportunities across social groups such as men and women, and urban and rural households. This has given rise to the Arab Inequality Puzzle (World Bank, 2013). Understanding the role of countries’ economic growth and its trickledown to ordinary and vulnerable households is an important part of solving the poverty–inequality puzzle. While Arab economies at large have been expanding, most workers have not reaped benefits from this growth or from their own enhanced human capital. Earnings and returns to schooling have been stagnating or declining. The segmentation of Arab countries’ labour markets thus provides additional clues to solving the puzzle. The share of precarious jobs has been increasing in the past decade, particularly since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the technology-enabled proliferation of the informal platform and gig economy. Arab countries’ efforts to wean themselves off the resource extraction economy has also contributed to the attrition of decent jobs, as it has not been accompanied by an adequate creation of formal green jobs. Indeed, household income surveys point to the stagnation or decline in take-home incomes and consumption expenditures. Is it that their distribution in household surveys could be grossly underestimated? Indeed, recent studies suggest that misreporting and exclusion of certain households’ incomes typically underestimates the earnings distribution, particularly its top deciles. Purpose of the consultancy The forthcoming report attempts to resolve the Arab Inequality Puzzle with these stylized facts relying on the most recent national accounts data and household income and expenditure surveys for over 150 countries. The analytical focus and policy implications are primarily geared to Arab countries. In addition to elucidating the poverty–inequality nexus, which has important policy implications for Arab countries, the report’s second main objective is to produce a revised set of inequality measures that factor in the estimated missing top incomes. The accompanying database will complement ESCWA’s existing databases as well as the Money Metric Poverty and Inequality Assist Tool (MPAT) which are publicly available for researchers and policy makers in Arab countries and globally. Given the significance of the undertaking and the novelty of the tentative findings, ESCWA is recruiting a consultant to assist with the development of methodologies, and production and interpretation of new results for the forthcoming “Making Sense of the Poverty and Inequality Puzzle in Arab Countries” Report. The Consultant will conduct analysis, produce new results and their interpretation, and draft two new chapters for the Report, namely “Size of the middle class: trends and updates", and “Living conditions of the middle class,” including a section on "Trends in inequality perceptions.” Duties and responsibilities Reporting to the Poverty Project Coordinator, under the broad supervision of the Cluster Leader, the consultant will work closely with the Poverty Project team, assisting in the following areas: 1- Collect, synthesize, and analyze data on socioeconomic vulnerabilities and poverty levels including trends across time. 2- Draft a “Size of the middle class: trends and updates" chapter. 3- Draft a “Living conditions of the middle class” chapter, including a section on "Trends in inequality perceptions.” 4- Assist in other related tasks as requested by the supervisor.

Qualifications/special skills

A masters degree in economics, statistics or related fields is or related area is required. All candidates must submit a copy of the required educational degree. Incomplete applications will not be reviewed. A minimum of 1 year of professional work experience in experience in conducting quantitative analysis of data using statistical software, economic data analysis, presentation, drafting and visualization is required.

Languages

English and French are the working languages of the United Nations Secretariat; and Arabic is a working language of ESCWA. For this position, Fluency in English and Arabic is required. Note: “Fluency” equals a rating of ‘fluent’ in all four areas (speak, read, write, and understand) and “Knowledge of” equals a rating of ‘confident’ in two of the four areas.

No Fee

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.

Consultant Preparation of two chapters for ESCWA report ‘Making Sense of the Poverty and Inequality Puzzle in Arab Countries’