Result of Service

The consultant will develop a national version of Economy wide Trade Simulator Interface for Bahrain. The required outputs to be delivered by the consultant are the following: The new global database to be used for the calibration of the national GETSI for Bahrain. The gams code for the calibrated GETSI Bahrain The required files for uploading the model on GAMS-MIRO.

Work Location

Remote

Expected duration

3.5 months

Duties and Responsibilities

Scope and Objectives Decision-makers require advanced tools that provide real-time, data-driven insights to effectively design optimal economic policies. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) has been at the forefront of developing cutting-edge simulation tools to support Arab countries in aligning their trade policies with broader economic objectives and long-term national visions. One such tool is a user-friendly trade simulator that enables non-specialist trade experts and negotiators across the Arab region to utilize customized global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models for exante economic assessments of policy changes at national, regional, and global levels. At the request of the Ministry of Industry and Commerce of Bahrain, to develop a tailored version of the Global Economywide Trade Simulator Interface (GETSI) for Bahrain. The interface facilitates forward-looking analysis, particularly in evaluating the potential impacts of new trade agreements currently under negotiation as well as regional and global economic shocks and changes in global trade landscape. It will include specific sectoral and geographical disaggregation’s as well as updated baseline scenario, and policy instruments. Duties and responsibilities Based on the outcomes of discussions between ESCWA and the Ministry of Industry of Bahrain, the purpose of this consultancy is to develop a tailored version of the global CGE model for Bahrain to be used to develop the simulator interface on GAMS-MIRO. The consultant is expected to undertake the following tasks: Aggregate the GTAP 12 database to the sectoral and geographical dimensions agreed on with the Ministry of Industry of Bahrain. Calibrate (statistic calibration) the global CGE model with the new global database for all countries and regions individually integrated in the database. Calibrate the baseline scenario (dynamic calibration) for all countries and regions individually considered in the database using latest forecasts on GDP, population, labor supply, and productivity changes for the period 2024-2035. Test the functioning of the dynamic model through concrete simulations. Assist ESCWA’s project coordinator in preparing the required files for uploading the model into GAMS-MIRO platform. If required, support capacity-building sessions to the national team lead by the Ministry of Industry.

Qualifications/special skills

A Master's degree in applied economics or related area is required. A PhD is desirable. All candidates must submit a copy of the required educational degree. Incomplete applications will not be reviewed. A minimum of 10 years of experience in developing and applying global dynamic CGE models using GAMS is required. Proven experience in working with GTAP database is required. Hands-on experience in calibrating and running global CGE models and proficiency in GAMS and its applications in global CGE modeling is required. Knowledge of MIRO interface design and best practices in user interaction for economic modeling tools is desirable.

Languages

English For this position, fluency in Arabic is required. Knowledge of English and French is desirable. Note: “Fluency” equals a rating of ‘fluent’ in all four areas (speak, read, write, and understand) and “Knowledge of” equals a rating of ‘confident’ in two of the four areas.

No Fee

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.

Consultant to develop a new version of the Economywide Trade Simulator GETSI for Bahrain