Result of Service

The consultant will assess cascading and interdependent risks across critical infrastructure systems and develop analytical outputs and practical tools that support risk-informed infrastructure planning and macro-fiscal resilience strategies. The assignment will also contribute to methodological innovation within UNDRR by advancing practical approaches for infrastructure network and systemic risk analysis that can be adapted, scaled, and replicated across multiple country contexts to strengthen disaster risk-informed infrastructure planning and resilience investment decisions.

Work Location

Homebase

Expected duration

Oct 2026-Mar 2027

Duties and Responsibilities

Background Created in December 1999, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) is the designated focal point in the United Nations system for the coordination of efforts to reduce disasters and to ensure synergies among the disaster reduction activities of the United Nations and regional organizations and activities in both developed and less developed countries. Led by the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction (SRSG/ASG), UNDRR has over 150 staff located in its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, and in regional offices. UNDRR guides, monitors, analyses, and reports on progress in the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. It supports regional and national implementation of the Framework and catalyzes action and increases global awareness to reduce disaster risk working with UN Member States and a broad range of partners and stakeholders, including civil society, the private sector, parliamentarians and the science and technology community. Within its regional programme on resilient infrastructure and risk-informed development, UNDRR is supporting two complementary initiatives in the Maldives and Timor-Leste. In the Maldives, UNDRR is undertaking a disaster risk-informed macro-fiscal budget stress test that combines catastrophe risk modelling and fiscal analysis to understand how disaster impacts on critical infrastructure can affect public finances and broader economic performance. The assessment focuses on key infrastructure sectors, including power, transport, telecommunications and water systems, under priority hazard scenarios such as windstorms and coastal flooding, taking into account the amplifying effects of sea-level rise. In parallel, UNDRR is supporting the Government of Timor-Leste through a resilient infrastructure hotspot analysis aimed at identifying areas where infrastructure systems face the greatest disaster and climate-related risks. The analysis is intended to support risk-informed prioritisation of infrastructure investments, particularly for transport infrastructure, health facilities, and early warning-related infrastructure, and to strengthen the evidence base for resilient infrastructure planning and decision-making. A common challenge across both initiatives is the need to better understand systemic risk, namely how disruptions to individual infrastructure assets propagate across interconnected systems and generate cascading impacts that exceed direct physical damage. UNDRR therefore seeks the services of an experienced consultant with expertise in infrastructure network analysis, systemic risk modelling, and quantitative risk assessment to support the application of a systemic risk estimation methodology across both country engagements. The assignment will strengthen the analytical foundation for disaster risk-informed infrastructure investment, macro-fiscal resilience planning, and future infrastructure network analysis initiatives. Under the overall supervision of UNDRR Regional Office for Asia-Pacific's Economic Affairs Officer and Programme Management Officer, the home-based consultant will provide technical expertise to estimate systemic and cascading risks arising from disaster impacts on critical infrastructure systems and to integrate the results into the Maldives budget stress test and the Timor-Leste infrastructure hotspot analysis. The consultant will apply and adapt an existing quantitative systemic risk modelling approach, develop analytical outputs, and provide recommendations for future application and scaling. Workstream 1: Maldives Systemic Risk Assessment for Budget Stress Testing The consultant will: - Map and analyse interdependencies among critical infrastructure sectors, including power, transport, telecommunications and water systems, relevant to the identified hazard scenarios. - Apply the systemic risk modelling methodology to estimate cascading and network-based losses resulting from disaster impacts, distinguishing between direct asset damage and indirect losses arising from infrastructure interdependencies, taking as inputs the hazard scenarios and asset-level direct damage estimates produced by the catastrophe risk model, so that the cascading analysis builds on, and does not duplicate, the direct damage assessment. - Assess the implications of infrastructure service disruption for economic activity and public finances, ensuring that analytical outputs can be integrated into the broader macro-fiscal budget stress testing framework, including by expressing results as sector-level service disruption profiles (the extent and duration of power, transport, telecommunications and water service losses, by economic sector and hazard scenario) that can be applied directly as shocks in the macro-fiscal model. - Produce technical outputs, datasets, assumptions, and documentation necessary for incorporation into the catastrophe risk and fiscal modelling work being undertaken by UNDRR and project partners. Workstream 2: Timor-Leste Infrastructure Risk Hotspot Analysis The consultant will: - Review and provide technical advice on the ongoing hotspot analysis methodology with particular emphasis on infrastructure network analysis. - Identify opportunities to strengthen the representation of infrastructure interdependencies across priority sectors and infrastructure nodes. - Develop approaches for incorporating network analysis considerations into hotspot identification, infrastructure prioritisation, and resilience investment planning. - Translate analytical outputs from the hotspot analysis into practical and decision-oriented tools that can support policymakers in exploring infrastructure risk scenarios and prioritisation options. This may entail the development of a basic prototype analytical and visualisation tool that enables users to examine different vulnerability and risk scenarios using hotspot analysis outputs and infrastructure network information. (Consideration will be given to the existing decision support platform existing in the country already) Cross-Cutting Responsibilities Across both workstreams, the consultant will: - Develop and document the methodology, analytical framework, assumptions, limitations, and data requirements used in the assignment. - Ensure that all approaches and outputs are transparent, reproducible, and adaptable for future application in other country contexts. - Prepare technical documentation and knowledge products summarising the methodology, findings, and recommendations. - Participate in technical discussions and consultations with UNDRR, government counterparts, and project partners as required. - Provide recommendations for future development of systemic infrastructure risk analysis and network-based resilience planning in both country context Duties and Responsibilities - Conduct systemic risk and infrastructure network analysis - Apply infrastructure network and systemic risk analysis methods to assess cascading and interdependent disaster risks affecting critical infrastructure systems. - Support the integration of systmic risk and network analysis considerations into the Maldives budget stress test and the Timor-Leste infrastructure hotspot analysis. - Develop analytical outputs and tools - Produce analytical outputs, technical recommendations, and a prototype tool to support risk-informed infrastructure planning, resilience investment prioritisation, and macro-fiscal decision-making. - Document methodologies, assumptions, and data requirements to support transparency, reproducibility, and future application of the approach. - Strengthen knowledge and capacity on systemic risk/network analysis - Contribute to methodological innovation and strengthen UNDRR's capacity to assess systemic infrastructure risks and undertake network analysis of a connected system. - Engage with UNDRR, government counterparts, and relevant stakeholders to validate findings and support the replication of the methodology in other country contexts.

Qualifications/special skills

An advanced university degree (Master's degree or equivalent) in civil engineering, infrastructure engineering, risk modelling, data science, computer science, economics, statistics, mathematics, systems engineering, or a related field is required. A PhD in a relevant discipline is desirable. A minimum of ten years of professional experience in infrastructure network analysis, systemic risk assessment, and modelling of cascading impacts arising from natural hazards and disasters is required. Experience in applying the approach of infrastructure network analysis, systemic risk assessment, and modling cascading impacts in island or small island developing states is required. Proven experience in quantitative risk modelling, data analytics, simulation modelling, or related analytical approaches is required Experience in applying infrastructure resilience, disaster risk reduction, climate risk, or critical infrastructure assessment methodologies in policy or operational contexts is required. Experience in developing analytical tools, decision-support systems, visualisation platforms, or other practical applications for policy and planning purposes is required. Experience in developing simulation engines or applying scientific programming languages (such as Julia, Rust or Python) to infrastructure network and cascading failure modelling is desirable. Experience in using interactive visualization or serious gaming approaches for stakeholder engagement and capacity building is desirable. Working experience with national governments, international organisations, development partners, or research institutions on disaster risk, resilience, infrastructure planning, or related topics is desirable.

Languages

Fluency in English is required.

Additional Information

Due to the high volume of applications received, only successful candidates will be contacted.

No Fee

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.

Consultant on Infrastructure Network and Systemic Risk Analysis